In 2020, my country took the lead in effectively controlling the epidemic. Since the second half of the year, the economy has recovered rapidly, and the annual GDP has increased by 2.3% year-on-year. On this basis, China's economy will continue to grow strongly in 2021, with GDP in the first quarter increasing by 18.3% year-on-year and 10.3% compared with the first quarter of 2019.
The growth of the domestic economy has stimulated the recovery and growth of market demand for machine tools. From January to March 2021, the machine tool industry continued its recovery growth trend since the second half of 2020. Compared with the same period of the previous year and the same period of 2019, all major economic indicators have achieved substantial growth, and the quality and efficiency have improved significantly.
Looking at the whole year, the machine tool industry will be able to reverse the downward trend in the past decade and achieve a growth of more than 5%.
1. Basic situation of industry operation
According to the statistical data of the key contact enterprises of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, enterprise surveys and information provided by relevant branches, a summary analysis of the operation of the machine tool industry in the first quarter of 2021 is as follows.
(1) Operating income continued to increase substantially, and various sub-sectors generally increased
From January to March 2021, the operating income of key contact enterprises increased by 73.1% year-on-year. In terms of different industries, the year-on-year growth rate of numerical control devices and rolling functional components exceeded 100%; the year-on-year growth rate of metal cutting machine tools, machine tool accessories and abrasives was more than 70%; the year-on-year growth rate of metal forming machine tools and machine tool electrical appliances was 50%. %; the year-on-year growth rate of tools and measuring tools is close to 40%. Compared with the same period in 2019, the operating income of key contact enterprises has increased by more than 30%, but the situation of each sub-industry is different: metal forming machine tools have a decline of close to 20%, tools and measuring tools have basically remained flat, and other sub-sectors have increased to varying degrees.
(2) The total profit has increased significantly, and all sub-sectors are fully profitable
From January to March 2021, the total profit of key contact enterprises was 660 million yuan, and both last year and the same period in 2019 were in a state of loss. From the perspective of sub-sectors, all sub-sectors have achieved profitability. Specifically, metal-cutting machine tools, rolling functional parts, abrasives, and numerical control devices turned profitable from losses in the same period; metal-forming machine tools, machine tools, electrical appliances, machine tool accessories, and measuring tools made profits in the same period last year, and achieved total profits in the first quarter of this year. Both have increased significantly.
(3) The company's losses have narrowed year-on-year but greater than 2019
In March 2021, loss-making enterprises accounted for 28.6% of key contact enterprises, a decrease of 12.0 percentage points from the same month of the previous year. Compared with the same month in 2019, the proportion of loss-making enterprises in key contact enterprises increased by 2.1 percentage points.
(4) Orders continue to grow rapidly, and the growth rate exceeds expectations
From January to March 2021, new orders for metal processing machine tools increased by 90.1% year-on-year; orders in hand increased by 28.1% year-on-year. Among them, new orders for metal cutting machine tools increased by 111.5% year-on-year, and orders in hand increased by 25.6% year-on-year; new orders for metal forming machine tools increased by 53.7% year-on-year, and orders in hand increased by 34.6% year-on-year. Compared with the same period in 2019, new orders for metal processing machine tools increased by 62.7%, of which new orders for metal cutting machine tools increased by 74.6%, and new orders for metal forming machine tools increased by 31.7%. The growth trend of orders in hand is similar.
(5) The output of machine tools increased, and the inventory of finished products decreased slightly
From January to March 2021, the output of metal processing machine tools increased by 71.8% year-on-year, and the output value increased by 70.8% year-on-year. Among them, the output of metal cutting machine tools increased by 71.6% year-on-year, and the output value increased by 76.3% year-on-year; the output of metal forming machine tools increased by 72.8% year-on-year, and the output value increased by 59.4% year-on-year. Compared with the same period in 2019, the output and output value of metal cutting machine tools have increased by about 10%, and the output and output value of metal forming machine tools have increased by about 5%.
From January to March 2021, the inventory of key contact enterprises increased by 3.1% year-on-year. Among them, the inventory of raw materials increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the inventory of finished products decreased by 3.5% year-on-year. The inventory of finished metal processing machine tools increased by 0.7% year-on-year. Among them, metal cutting machine tools increased by 0.2% year-on-year, and metal forming machine tools increased by 17.4% year-on-year.
2. Import and export situation
According to China Customs data, the import and export of machine tools and tools in the first quarter of 2021 showed a significant growth trend. The total import and export volume increased by 30.5% year-on-year, compared with the first quarter of 2019, an increase of 9.5%.
In the first quarter of 2021, the import and export of machine tools and tools maintained a surplus since June 2019. Imports of machine tools and tools were US$3.28 billion and exports were US$4.03 billion, with a surplus of US$750 million.
In terms of imports, overall imports in the first quarter of 2021 showed a recovery growth trend. Imports increased by 22.9% year-on-year, which was a decrease of 3.3% compared with the first quarter of 2019. Among them, the import value of metal processing machine tools was 1.68 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%. Among them, the import value of metal cutting machine tools was US$1.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%; the import value of metal forming machine tools was US$310 million, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%. In the first quarter, the import value of cutting tools was US$430 million, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%; the import value of abrasives was US$180 million, a year-on-year increase of 30.8%; the import value of machine tool functional parts increased the most at US$470 million, a year-on-year increase of 63.7%.
From the perspective of import sources, the top three sources of imports from January to March 2021 are: Japan US$1.09 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%; Germany US$670 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; Taiwan, China, US$430 million, a year-on-year increase 68.5%.
In terms of exports, the first quarter of 2021 showed an overall trend of substantial growth. The export value increased by 37.3% year-on-year, which was an increase of 22.8% compared with the first quarter of 2019. Among them, the export value of metal processing machine tools was US$1.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%. Among them, the export value of metal cutting machine tools was US$770 million, a year-on-year increase of 43.0%; the export value of metal forming machine tools was US$360 million, a year-on-year increase of 36.4%. In the first quarter, the export value of cutting tools was US$830 million, a year-on-year increase of 49.6%; the export value of abrasives was US$820 million, a year-on-year increase of 56.5%.
From the perspective of export destinations, in the first three months of 2021, the top three exports are: US$510 million, a year-on-year increase of 47.2%; Vietnam US$310 million, a year-on-year increase of 57.1%; India US$300 million, a year-on-year increase of 46.2 %.
3. Industry operation characteristics
(1) The operation of the entire industry has improved in an all-round way
Judging from the statistical data of the association’s key contact enterprises, the analysis materials provided by the relevant branches, and the association’s survey of some enterprises, the main economic indicators of most enterprises in various sub-sectors in the first quarter of 2021 have increased significantly year-on-year, and compared with the same period in 2019. It has increased to a certain extent, orders are full, overtime is common, and production pressure is great. After the overall fluctuation of the industry in the past ten years, market demand has shown a recovery trend.
Imports have achieved restorative growth. Imports have only slightly decreased compared with the same period in 2019. Exports have not only increased significantly year-on-year, but also increased by more than 20% compared with the same period in 2019.
There are many reasons for the boom in market demand. The main reason is that the country's economic stimulus and corporate relief policies to overcome the impact of the epidemic have been effective. Repeated foreign epidemics have caused a large number of orders to flow into my country, and import demand cannot be guaranteed. During the epidemic The delayed release of demand, the resumption of growth in the automobile manufacturing industry, the sharp growth of construction machinery, agricultural machinery and other industries, and the low base in the same period in 2020, etc.
(2) The growth trend of metal cutting machine tools is stronger
From the above data, it can be seen that the operating income, machine tool output, new orders, and orders in hand of metal cutting machine tools from January to March 2021 have increased significantly year-on-year. Compared with the same period in 2019, there is also a certain degree of growth. In particular, orders in hand remain high, and new orders continue to grow rapidly, which is much higher than the growth rate of operating income, providing sufficient endogenous motivation for later development.
The year-on-year growth rate of the main economic indicators of the metal forming machine tool sub-industry is generally lower than that of the metal cutting machine tool. Compared with the same period in 2019, new orders for metal forming machine tools have increased by 31.7%, and other indicators are still somewhat behind the levels of the same period in 2019 before the epidemic. The metal forming machine tool industry is in the process of recovery as a whole. However, some key enterprises in the industry have shown strong growth trends.
(3) Innovation has increasingly become the main driving force for enterprise development
The association's investigation learned that under the situation that market demand is generally booming, there are still big differences in the operation of machine tool industry enterprises. During the downturn of the industry, companies that continued to carry out product R&D and structural adjustments, and kept up with changes in market demand, had more outstanding operating performance.
In recent years, under the background of my country's supply-side structural reform and industrial structure adjustment and optimization, market demand has undergone profound changes. For example, the rapid development of emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, 5G, and semiconductors has put forward many new requirements for machine tool products, and overall product demand levels are gradually increasing. The development of the machine tool industry is showing new changes from discrete manufacturing technology to system integration and intelligent manufacturing technology, from mass production to customization, from demand realization to demand creation, and from investment to investment and consumption. In response to changes in demand and competitive pressures, innovation has become an urgent need to drive the development of industries and enterprises.
4. Outstanding problems and policy suggestions in the operation of the industry
(1) Rising prices of raw materials seriously affect business operations
Many companies report that the current prices of major raw materials such as steel, copper, and aluminum, as well as industry-related supporting parts continue to rise, leading to substantial increases in corporate costs. The impact on sub-sectors such as forging machinery, heavy-duty machine tools, and machine tool accessories is particularly serious.
It is recommended that relevant departments strengthen the macro-control of raw material prices, curb abnormal price increases, maintain normal business operations, and promote the healthy development of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.
(2) The shortage of talents in the machine tool industry is outstanding
In recent years, the machine tool industry has continued to decline, the profit rate of the industry has continued to fall, the work is relatively hard, the skill requirements are relatively high, and the wage level is difficult to increase significantly, which has caused more and more young people to be reluctant to engage in the machine tool industry. Enterprises generally report that it is difficult to recruit professional and technical talents, and it is even more difficult to find high-end talents. It is also increasingly difficult to recruit industrial workers in casting, welding, machining, and assembly industries.
It is recommended that the state increase the training of professional and technical personnel, attach importance to the training of skilled workers, and cultivate professional and skilled personnel with the spirit of craftsmanship. At the same time, we will study and issue policies to stabilize and cultivate professional and skilled talents.
(3) Insufficient R&D investment required to break through the stuck neck problem
Due to the low profit margins of machine tool products, enterprises generally lack investment in research and development. In particular, high-end machine tools, numerical control systems, precision sensors, key functional components and other stuck-neck fields have a big gap with foreign countries in terms of technical level, and require a large investment in scientific research, which most companies cannot afford.
The current developments in various aspects at home and abroad have created good conditions for the localization of high-end machine tools, supporting functional components, and numerical control systems. In particular, the willingness of machine tool users to accept domestic products has greatly increased. It is recommended that the state increase its support to enable a group of enterprises with the key conditions and foundations to come to the fore, resolve the stuck neck problem as soon as possible, and drive the transformation and upgrading of the industry.
On the whole, the market demand of the machine tool industry grew rapidly in the first quarter, and the industry was operating steadily and positively, achieving a good start for the whole year, laying a good foundation for the operation of the whole year. However, the problem of sharp increase in raw material prices is more prominent. The global epidemic prevention and control situation remains severe, and the external economic environment remains complex.
Considering various factors and the current good development trend of the machine tool industry, we expect that if the epidemic does not rebound seriously, uncertain factors are effectively dealt with, various policies continue to be effective, and the machine tool industry will continue in 2020 in 2021. Resuming growth trend, the main economic indicators are expected to increase by more than 5%. Taking into account the influence of factors such as the base number of the previous year, the growth rate may gradually decrease.
(Source: China Machine Tool Industry Association Editor: Zhang Fangli)
